According to a recent study published in Science Advances, researchers from the US Geological Survey (USGS) have calculated that Earth’s underground reserves contain nearly 6,000 billion tonnes of hydrogen. Remarkably, just a small fraction of this resource would be enough to meet global energy needs—if we can locate and extract it efficiently.
What’s New About This Study?
The study, led by Geoffrey Ellis and Sarah Gelman, highlights the immense potential of geological hydrogen as an energy resource. Using advanced mathematical models and the mass balance method, the researchers estimate that exploiting just 2% of this underground hydrogen—around 100 billion tonnes—could provide more energy than all proven natural gas reserves combined.
Hydrogen Recovery Challenges
The total global quantity of natural hydrogen in Earth’s subsoil ranges from 10³ to 10¹⁰ Mt, with the most likely estimate being ~5.6 × 10⁶ Mt (or an average of ~6.8 × 10⁷ Mt). However, most reserves are believed to be too deep, too small, or located too far offshore to be economically viable at present.
That said, even a fraction of these reserves would be sufficient to meet the projected hydrogen demand of 500 million tonnes by 2050. Drawing comparisons to the shale gas boom in the United States, the study suggests that geological hydrogen could significantly contribute to the global energy supply within a few decades. By the end of the century, it could account for half of the projected supply of blue hydrogen.
Is Hydrogen a Renewable Resource?
The study provides encouraging insights into the sustainability of natural hydrogen. Researchers estimate a 94% probability that underground hydrogen reserves will exceed extraction rates until at least 2100, with a 75% probability extending beyond the year 2200.
Surprisingly, natural hydrogen appears to be renewable. The Earth’s natural production rate of hydrogen is estimated at around 5 Mt per year. This suggests that natural processes generating hydrogen could potentially keep pace with extraction rates.
Independent Study with Expert Insights
The authors, who have no vested interests in the sector, worked with experts such as Viacheslav Zgonnik from Natural Hydrogen Energy and French geochemist Eric-Claude Gaucher to refine their findings.
The full study can be read here.
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