In a study on hydrogen storage from December 2023, the consulting firm estimates that there will be a majority of battery-electric vehicles and vehicles using gaseous hydrogen over the next decade. Liquid hydrogen remaining very limited.
For Roland Berger, the hydrogen storage market offers unprecedented potential in the mobility and infrastructure sectors (heavy vehicles, urban and agricultural transport, aerospace, etc.). And out of a total of €9.5 billion between now and 2030, €6.7 billion will be spent on mobility (half of which, €3.1 billion on heavy-duty mobility). The firm estimates that fuel cells will win the day, as this technology is considered to be the most efficient in terms of cost, energy consumption and range. Fuel cell will run on hydrogen gas, for an average range of 600 km. Type IV tanks will dominate until 2035.
This mobility market will be very diverse, with applications ranging from cars (including commercial vehicles and pick-ups under 6 tonnes), buses, lorries, construction machinery, tractors and forklift trucks. Aviation and shipping will not be concerned until after 2030, according to the study.
Liquid hydrogen in 2040
The market share for the automotive sector will be minimal by 2030 (just over 3%). Encompassing road mobility as a whole, Roland Berger estimates that 10 manufacturers have ambitions in this market, starting with Renault, Stellantis, Huyndai and Toyota. The European players are positioning themselves particularly in the light commercial vehicle (LCV) sector. Forvia, Plastic Omnium and Hexagon Purus cover broad market segments. Penetration will be high in coaches (26%), trains (23%), buses (9%) and trucks (4-6% depending on tonnage).
According to the study, the hydrogen engine will represent a niche market and remain a transition method. Commercial applications of alternative solutions, such as cryo-compression and liquid hydrogen, are not expected before 2030. Roland Berger estimates that trucks, coaches and trains will be able to use liquid hydrogen by 2040, without having to give up on gaseous hydrogen.
Finally, the market for filling stations will be worth 2.8 billion by 2030.
Article written by Laurent Meillaud and translated by Logan King
